Stage 16 and 17 are the last stages where GC action could happen. Tomorrow is a tricky one, don’t underestimate it. At the start of the stage there are chances for echelons, unfortunatly this will be before the live broadcast. Maybe teams like Movistar or Ineos will use this to make an attempt to distance Roglic. There are also 2 climbs, one 2nd category climb halfway and a 1st cat climb with the top at just 36k to go. This opens up possibilities for an attack by a GC contender but it will be hard with Jumbo Visma being so strong.
Once again not looking at the riders who were in the breakaway the day before on stage 15. This cost a lot of energy and it will be hard to repeat that effort. Pure climbers might save themselves for stage 17.
Riders who could go in the early breakaway on stage 16 are Bagioli, Peters, Fraile, Champoussin, Lopez and Barta.
All very obvious picks, their profile is perfect for this stage. Other names who might be more interesting are Mäder, he looked strong on stage 15 with his late attack. Also Ivo Oliveira has looked better and better during this Vuelta which is really impressive as a debutant. The climbing might be a bit much for him but he can use the last 30k to come back with his timetrial quality. A rider who is in the same boat as Oliveira is Dewulf. Stage might be a but hard for him but he is in great form and no other chances left for him either.
Finally Sunweb will want a rider in the break as well. Look at Power and Sutterlin from their team. Sutterlin was good in the timetrial for sure.
Ineos Grenadier doesn’t care too much about a podium spot in a Grandtour general classification. They ‘ve got plenty already. What counts for them is the win. That is why I think they will want to make the race hard on stage 16 probably on that last climb. Their team isn’t that strong though. We could see Carapaz attack on the last climb himself if they manage to get a helper in the early breakaway who can provide support in the final 30 kilometers.