This stage is harder than it looks, lots of climbing in the first half. Not too steep though. But this will influence the type of riders and size of the early breakaway. Finish is on top of a 1,1k climb at 6,5% hill.
Breakaway scenario (70% change)
Alex Aranburu, Astana has a very strong team in this Vuelta and is focussed on stages. Aranburu is their best bet, has the punch to have a chance from a group.
Rui Costa, Aranburu is quick but he got beaten by Costa in stage 7 with a sprint for 6th place. Rui should be more than capable of getting over the climbs and more importantly, he knows when to go smart rider. High chance he will end up in the breakaway if he wants to.
Julien Simon, was really strong on stage 10 where he got 6th from the peloton that was a similair finish. TDE will want something out of this Vuelta and Simon in the coming 3 stages seems to be their man. They might even support him a bit.
Ide Schelling, Stannard, Bagioli not sure what they have in the tank still because it is their first Grand Tour but they do have the right profile to get a good result on this stage.
Nans Peters, this man will win a stage only question is which one. Tomorrow might be his best bet! Finish should suit him and I am looking forward to see his grit.
Peloton ‘sprint’ (25%)
Primoz Roglic, what can you say 4 stagewins this Vuelta…
Felix Grossschartner, the stage that comes closest profile wise is stage 10. Felix got 2nd there so should be seen as one of the favorites here on stage 14 as well.
Late attack from the peloton (5%)
Luis Leon Sanchez, he has done tricks like this in the past. I think Astana has better options looking at Sanchez current form but ehh, Maybe!