So sprinters chances are on hold till the final stage. We start of the GC action once again with stage 11. Really hard day in the saddle with a very long finishing climb. The roadbook says 18,6k at 5,7% for the last climb but that is a bit misleading. Last 7 kilometers is almost 9% average.
This stage provides a lot of opportunity’s for the GC riders. They can leave it all to the final climb and still create big time gaps there but it is also possible to go in the breakaway with a few teammates. The start is uphill so I think the chance is pretty big especially Movistar places some good climbers in the breakaway. Maybe Soler or Valverde combined with a few teammates. This will put the pressure on Jumbo-Visma who will want to keep those riders close. However usually we see this on a bit shorter stages so we could also see attacks by the Movistars on the 2nd first category climb.
Because this is such an important GC day and with Movistar, Ineos and Jumbo all having showed they want to race aggresive I think its an 70% chance they battle it out for the stagewin as well.
But if it is a breakaway its definetly a good climber. Start is uphill so this will be an only climbers breakaway basically. Names that come to mind are Mikel Nieve who has been in Vuelta breakaways on days like these for a decade. The team that will be in the breakaway with 1 or multiple riders 100% is Astana. They got a very climber focussed mostly Spanish team here. Maybe they will get Vlasov in the breakaway along with a few helpers like Luis Leon Sanchez and the Izagirres to get him back up in GC.
UAE – Emirates has Formolo and de la Cruz with a good chance. They got 2 more climbers who can place themselves in the breakaway as support but for the stagewin these 2 are the options. I also expect Cattaneo, Arensman, Lopez and Champoussin to give it a try but they have a smaller chance of succeeding.
Last but not least, Guillaume Martin. Raced the Tour but he looks like one of the freshest out there. Will try to be in the breakaway for the mountains jersey but the stage win is definetely a secondary goal for him on stage 11.
*** Roglic, Carapaz, Vlasov
** Formolo, G. Martin, Nieve, Carthy, Dan Martin, Mas, Soler, Kuss
* Cattaneo, Arensman, Lopez, Champoussin, de la Cruz, Poels, Woods, Gaudu, Chavez